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Predictive Analytics: The Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die Updated Edition

by Eric Siegel (Author)
4.2 4.2 out of 5 stars 693 ratings
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"Mesmerizing & fascinating..." —The Seattle Post-Intelligencer

"The Freakonomics of big data." —Stein Kretsinger, founding executive of Advertising.com

Award-winning | Used by over 30 universities | Translated into 9 languages

An introduction for everyone. In this rich, fascinating — surprisingly accessible — introduction, leading expert Eric Siegel reveals how predictive analytics (aka machine learning) works, and how it affects everyone every day. Rather than a “how to” for hands-on techies, the book serves lay readers and experts alike by covering new case studies and the latest state-of-the-art techniques.

Prediction is booming. It reinvents industries and runs the world. Companies, governments, law enforcement, hospitals, and universities are seizing upon the power. These institutions predict whether you're going to click, buy, lie, or die.

Why? For good reason: predicting human behavior combats risk, boosts sales, fortifies healthcare, streamlines manufacturing, conquers spam, optimizes social networks, toughens crime fighting, and wins elections.

How? Prediction is powered by the world's most potent, flourishing unnatural resource: data. Accumulated in large part as the by-product of routine tasks, data is the unsalted, flavorless residue deposited en masse as organizations churn away. Surprise! This heap of refuse is a gold mine. Big data embodies an extraordinary wealth of experience from which to learn.

Predictive analytics(aka machine learning) unleashes the power of data. With this technology, the computer literally learns from data how to predict the future behavior of individuals. Perfect prediction is not possible, but putting odds on the future drives millions of decisions more effectively, determining whom to call, mail, investigate, incarcerate, set up on a date, or medicate.

In this lucid, captivating introduction — now in its Revised and Updated edition — former Columbia University professor and Predictive Analytics World founder Eric Siegel reveals the power and perils of prediction:

  • What type of mortgage risk Chase Bank predicted before the recession.
  • Predicting which people will drop out of school, cancel a subscription, or get divorced before they even know it themselves.
  • Why early retirement predicts a shorter life expectancy and vegetarians miss fewer flights.
  • Five reasons why organizations predict death — including one health insurance company.
  • How U.S. Bank and Obama for America calculated the way to most strongly persuade each individual.
  • Why the NSA wants all your data: machine learning supercomputers to fight terrorism.
  • How IBM's Watson computer used predictive modeling to answer questions and beat the human champs on TV's Jeopardy!
  • How companies ascertain untold, private truths — how Target figures out you're pregnant and Hewlett-Packard deduces you're about to quit your job.
  • How judges and parole boards rely on crime-predicting computers to decide how long convicts remain in prison.
  • 182 examples from Airbnb, the BBC, Citibank, ConEd, Facebook, Ford, Google, the IRS, LinkedIn, Match.com, MTV, Netflix, PayPal, Pfizer, Spotify, Uber, UPS, Wikipedia, and more.

How does predictive analytics work? This jam-packed book satisfies by demystifying the intriguing science under the hood. For future hands-on practitioners pursuing a career in the field, it sets a strong foundation, delivers the prerequisite knowledge, and whets your appetite for more.

A truly omnipresent science, predictive analytics constantly affects our daily lives. Whether you are a consumer of it — or consumed by it — get a handle on the power of Predictive Analytics.

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  1. ISBN-10
    9781119145677
  2. ISBN-13
    978-1119145677
  3. Edition
    Updated
  4. Publisher
    Wiley
  5. Publication date
    December 30, 2015
  6. Language
    English
  7. Dimensions
    6 x 0.88 x 9 inches
  8. Print length
    388 pages
  9. See all details
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Editorial Reviews

From the Inside Flap

TRANSLATED INTO 9 LANGUAGES USED IN COURSES AT MORE THAN 30 UNIVERSITIES

In this rich, fascinating--and surprisingly accessible--introduction, leading expert Eric Siegel reveals how predictive analytics works, and how it affects everyone every day.

Trendsetters like Chase, Facebook, Google, HP, IBM, Match.com, Netflix, the NSA, Pfizer, Target, and Uber are seizing upon the power of big data to predict human behavior--including yours.

Why? Predictive analytics reinvents industries and runs the world. Read on to discover how it combats risk, boosts sales, fortifies healthcare, optimizes social networks, toughens crime fighting, and wins elections.

"What Nate Silver did for poker and politics, this does for everything else."
--David Leinweber, author of Nerds on Wall Street

"The Freakonomics of big data."
--Stein Kretsinger, founding executive, Advertising.com

"A deeply informative dive into a topic that is critical to virtually every sector of business today."
--Geoffrey Moore, author of Crossing the Chasm

"Moneyball for business, government, and healthcare."
--Jim Sterne, founder, eMetrics Summit

From the Back Cover

TRANSLATED INTO 12 LANGUAGES USED IN COURSES AT MORE THAN 30 UNIVERSITIES

In this rich, fascinating—and surprisingly accessible—introduction, leading expert Eric Siegel reveals how predictive analytics works, and how it affects everyone every day.

Trendsetters like Chase, Facebook, Google, HP, IBM, Match.com, Netflix, the NSA, Pfizer, Target, and Uber are seizing upon the power of big data to predict human behavior—including yours.

Why? Predictive analytics reinvents industries and runs the world. Read on to discover how it combats risk, boosts sales, fortifies healthcare, optimizes social networks, toughens crime fighting, and wins elections.

"What Nate Silver did for poker and politics, this does for everything else."
—David Leinweber, author of Nerds on Wall Street

"The Freakonomics of big data."
—Stein Kretsinger, founding executive, Advertising.com

"A deeply informative dive into a topic that is critical to virtually every sector of business today."
—Geoffrey Moore, author of Crossing the Chasm

"Moneyball for business, government, and healthcare."
—Jim Sterne, founder, eMetrics Summit

Learn more: www.ThePredictionBook.com

Product details

  • ASIN ‏ : ‎ 1119145678
  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Wiley; Updated edition (December 30, 2015)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Paperback ‏ : ‎ 388 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 9781119145677
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1119145677
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 2.31 pounds
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6 x 0.88 x 9 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.2 4.2 out of 5 stars 693 ratings

About the author

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Eric Siegel

Eric Siegel

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Eric Siegel, Ph.D., is a leading consultant and former Columbia University professor who helps companies deploy machine learning. He is the founder of the long-running Machine Learning Week conference series and its new sister, Generative AI World, the instructor of the acclaimed online course “Machine Learning Leadership and Practice – End-to-End Mastery,” executive editor of The Machine Learning Times, and a frequent keynote speaker. He wrote the bestselling "Predictive Analytics: The Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die," which has been used in courses at hundreds of universities, as well as "The AI Playbook: Mastering the Rare Art of Machine Learning Deployment." Eric’s interdisciplinary work bridges the stubborn technology/business gap. At Columbia, he won the Distinguished Faculty award when teaching the graduate *computer science* courses in ML and AI. Later, he served as a *business school* professor at UVA Darden. Eric has appeared on numerous media channels, including Bloomberg, National Geographic, and NPR, and has published in Newsweek, HBR, SciAm blog, WaPo, WSJ, and more.

Customer reviews

4.2 out of 5 stars
4.2 out of 5
693 global ratings

Top reviews from the United States

Stewart Paulson
5.0 out of 5 stars Predictive Analytics
Reviewed in the United States on March 2, 2014
Verified Purchase
Eric Siegel describes the historical use and proven value of predictive analytics and describes the how, why and when predictive analytics, has been used as an effective tool for improving decision making in social institutions as well as retail, and commercial/industrial business. One of the great strengths of this book is that Eric Siegel provides a wealth of links to web sites where one can find additional information on predictive analytics, written by the leaders/experts in this field . An objective, well researched and well written book . Predictive analytics is described as a tool that provides management with more information for intelligent and accountable decision making. Predictive analytics has been proven in sports and elections as well as in insurance, finance, marketing and medicine as having huge potential for assisting management in making better decisions, particularly with respect to strategy and resource allocation. Siegel describes how social networking is being used to enhance decision making in marketing and providing management with a better understanding of the needs and preferences of their customers. He also discusses the difficulties that have been faced by the proponents of predictive analytics and how he and other proponents have dealt with critics, such as media that have express concern over privacy issues. Predictive analytics, like many advancements have faced regulatory changes and call for disciplined moral responsibility in their application, particularly where social communication is being integrated with other data bases for decision making by corporate and social/political leaders. With this sidebar Siegel goes on to focus on the tremendous benefits of predictive analytics and the numerous areas it is being used in with great success. This book is a six star book in a 5 star world.
4 people found this helpful
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Kwill
4.0 out of 5 stars I get it, I get it already
Reviewed in the United States on September 4, 2016
Verified Purchase
This provides a good overview through repetitive examples and no real formulas. I got the point half way through. It got boring by the time I got through the hundredth example two thirds into the book. If you want to learn how very useful predictive analysis can be, this is a good book gat is clearly written. You should get the point half way through. For emplementation, buy another, or hire the author.
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RusticTraveller
5.0 out of 5 stars Eric Siegel Great Book
Reviewed in the United States on May 18, 2015
Verified Purchase
This is a great book on the Topic. What are you going to learn. Predictive analytics, which represents a data mining or statistical solution derived from techniques and algorithms that can be used with unstructured or structured data to arrive at outcomes, has been in use for some time. Indeed, the discipline has been in use with structured data for several decades. However, the visibility and subsequent market adoption of the discipline have increased significantly in recent years as computer power has increased. Processing memory and speed have increased at exponential rates, and this novel fact has been reported on by the media. For example, TIME magazine reported that the typical smartphone in 2012 had greater computing power than all the computers it took to send Apollo 11 to the moon in 1969. Furthermore, the cost of computing power has decreased as quickly as the speed and memory capabilities have increased. This revolution in computing capability has put predictive analytics in reach of mainstream business, as a predictive model can produce outcomes in minutes rather than days. In the past, businesses could not afford the computing power necessary to gather and interpret data that changed continuously in real time. This lack of cost effective options presented obstacles to integrating the output of a predictive model into the business process. Now, with the price per CPU decreasing and the computer power increasing, predictive analytics has become a practical, even necessary tool, for most organizations. Hope this helps, overall a great book, Eric Siegel great book we should talk sometime..:)
5 people found this helpful
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URmem
3.0 out of 5 stars Just OK
Reviewed in the United States on August 12, 2013
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It's a brief introduction to some predictive analytics and a lot of examples more or less relevant. However, it does not go deep neither in the predictive analytics techniques neither in the examples so, overall, it is a very superficial book. It is interesting for around 20% of the book but then it does not provide new concepts after that. 40% of the book (!) is just references with numerous links that are irrelevant and part of the research that the author should keep to himself since, first, most links are outdated or there is no need to consult them. I learn some things and three stars is a generous rating.
3 people found this helpful
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I Teach Typing
5.0 out of 5 stars Beautiful non-technical writing
Reviewed in the United States on May 19, 2014
Verified Purchase
I do (and teach) predictive analysis for a living and love this book, not because it has technical advice that I will use, but instead because it is a *beautifully* written introduction that I can give to people who have no technical background. It is a great book for a high school senior who is thinking about going into any applied mathematical area (like economics or biostatistics). If you have expertise in other areas and if you keep hearing about topics like machine learning or artificial intelligence, IBM Watson or the Netflix Prize and if you want to get a feel for the area this is the book for you.

The quotes and examples frequently tie back into financial modeling but every domain is touched. Rather than being a book on math, this is equal parts history and social science. So, this book will be enjoyable for a wide audience.
12 people found this helpful
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Kindle Customer
4.0 out of 5 stars solid intro to the uses of PA
Reviewed in the United States on October 4, 2013
Verified Purchase
I read this book as it was required by a graduate level course about predictive analytics. Overall I enjoyed this book, Siegel has an engaging writing style and a very passionate stance on the value of PA. As an intro to the field it is great, full of real world examples. Siegel is a great storyteller and for the most part did not learn my interest. My only quibble is not enough detail on the nuts and bolts of how these predictive models really work, which I constantly found myself wanting more detail on. But I understand this is an intro to the field and it's uses, not a how-to manual. Worth reading if you have any interest in predictive analytics or the uses of modeling technology to drive decision making.
One person found this helpful
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Top reviews from other countries

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Gustavo
5.0 out of 5 stars Sensacional!
Reviewed in Brazil on October 22, 2020
Verified Purchase
Incrível, uma visão abrangente de aplicações de métodos preditivos! Recomendo!
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Stew7sx
5.0 out of 5 stars Un must read
Reviewed in Italy on November 30, 2021
Verified Purchase
Questo libro è un must have per chi vuole approcciarsi alla Predictive Analysis. Non è astruso ne complesso da capire. Ottimo incipit per chi è alle prime armi ed è interessato a capire inanzitutto le applicazioni pratiche.
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Ruben Sanpal
5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent gift
Reviewed in Canada on December 18, 2019
Verified Purchase
The book has the information applied to reality
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Carlos Arreola
5.0 out of 5 stars Bienvenido, aprende que puedes predecir el comportamiento humano
Reviewed in Mexico on April 30, 2019
Verified Purchase
El autor Eric, científico de datos, mejor conocido como el Dr. Data por su educación y sin duda por su amplio conocimiento en el área. Él ha tenido la oportunidad de participar con varias empresas de diferentes ramas industriales para implementar PA a sus armas de trabajo y sacarles provecho.
No, no es una guía llena de fórmulas matemáticas, es una invitación o una carta de presentación. Este libro sin duda es la mejor bienvenida que te pueden dar al mundo del análisis predictivo, es sencillo de leer, un libro corto y sobre todo, con su redacción te logra vender inmediatamente la idea de porque toda empresa hoy en día necesita el análisis predictivo. Esta lleno de casos de uso e información clave que cualquiera podría aprovechar sin problemas para inspirarse. Te ayuda a comprender fácilmente temas avanzados en cuestión de minutos.
No tiene una orientación técnica, razón por la cual cualquiera que tenga aunque sea poco nivel de conocimiento en el área podría entenderle muy fácilmente, el autor constantemente hace referencias ‘geeks’ las cuales dan una interacción extra con este título, de cierta forma esto es lo que me permite a mi leer continuamente sin que sea una lectura pesada.
Para nosotros los que tenemos orientación técnica, el libro resulta fascinante pues es una formula tan ‘pop’ de describir el análisis predictivo, así mismo que autor no nos descuido a nosotros, tiene un apartado de ‘manos a la obra’ en donde nos guía por niveles a diferentes recursos (libros, videos, cursos, etc.) para poder iniciar en este mundo del análisis predictivo.
Sin duda alguna recomendado.
One person found this helpful
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Christian Gallardo
3.0 out of 5 stars Libro regular
Reviewed in Spain on February 10, 2019
Verified Purchase
Un buen libro para comenzar. Regulares ejemplos.
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