Nearly every aspect of our life is determined by economics, and yet itâs easy to go through life understanding very little about it. Author and columnist Tim Harford (aka the âUndercover Economistâ) introduces the best books to get you thinking like an economist.
There are lots of pithy definitions of economics, none of which I find very helpful. Think of it this way: itâs a typical day. You wake up. Maybe itâs in some luxurious house or maybe itâs in a cramped place, having to share a space with lots of other people. You get up. You make yourself food. You have access to all these resources that, previously, would have been incredibly difficult to get. It would have taken hours of work to make breakfast. Now, you just grab the cereal out of the cupboard, the milk out of the fridge.
You go to work. Where do you work? How do you get there? Do you get stuck in traffic along the way? Whatâs the infrastructure like? How much power do you have to defy your boss? Whatâs the sort of work that youâre doing? What services or products are you supplying to other people?
All of these everyday thingsâand I could just go on and on and on through the entire dayâare the province of economics. So the choices that you have and how you make those choices, the resources that you have, how you go to work, how you make a living, this is all part of the economy, and economics is the study of the economy. That means itâs the study of statistics and history, psychology, physics, and all kinds of other things. Itâs just a wonderful, wonderful subject, but it does defy easy definitions.
Given that it covers all these aspects of your life, youâre presumably going to be at a big disadvantage if you donât know anything about economics in the modern world.
You could probably say that about all kinds of subjects, but I think having some grasp of economics does let you appreciate certain very interesting things about the way the world works and, in some circumstances, make better decisions.
A nice piece of intuitive economics that I heard from Martin Lewis, the money-saving expert, was when he was speaking on a panel about trust in banking and regulating banking, and how bankers should behave.
âThe choices that you have and how you make those choices, the resources that you have, how you go to work, how you make a living, this is all part of the economy, and economics is the study of the economyâ
Martin Lewis said, âWhat you have got to understand is banks are trying to get as much money as they can out of you. All businesses are trying to get as much money as they can out of you. Thatâs how it works and you are trying to pay them as little money as possible for the services they supply. Thatâs what I teach all my children. Thatâs what weâve all got to understand and the whole of the rest of this discussion everybody is having makes no sense.â I just thought, âYes! Thatâs thinking like an economist.â
There is, to some extent, an adversarial relationship in the marketplace, but it doesnât necessarily work out badly. You can make better decisions as a shopper. You can make better decisions as a citizen, as a voter, possibly you can even makeâsince I once used to write a personal advice columnâbetter decisions as a husband or wife or on the dating scene using economic ideas, too.
And yet, as youâve pointed out, weâve managed to make economics feel arid, narrow, and distant from everyday concerns. Why do you think that is when it is such a lively subject?
It was partly Irving Fisherâs fault. So Irving Fisherâwho weâll discuss later because heâs one of the subjects of Sylvia Nasarâs wonderful bookâwas a really, really fascinating character. He was interested in everything from Esperanto to vegetarianism, dietary reform to voting reform, world government to eugenics. A man of many, many enthusiasms.
But he was also a brilliant mathematician and in the 1910s and 20s he put economics on a path where everything could be turned into an equation. You could understand economic forces as though they were physical forcesâlike flows of water or the pull of gravity. That was enormously powerful. It really works very, very well. It doesnât work for everything, but it was so powerful that economists just said, âOkay. Weâll go with this.â
Then the problem is that as someone encountering economics for the first timeâmaybe because youâre interested or youâre an undergraduateâitâs all these differential equations describing the balancing of forces and stocks and flows. It doesnât seem to reflect psychology. It doesnât seem to reflect history. It doesnât seem to really reflect anything physical about the world around us at all. I think thatâs a shame. I mean, obviously, the maths is a very powerful tool and, if you use it in the right way, it sheds light on all of these things, but if we start only with the maths, I think the subject does tend to seem rather sterile and abstract.
But you have to be good at maths to do an economics degree. Thereâs no escaping that. Is there?
I didnât do an undergraduate economics degree, I did philosophy, politics, and economics. Thereâs even quite a lot of maths in that. As a post-graduate, thereâs an enormous amount of very abstract maths, which is beautiful. I never want to be seen as criticising maths. I love maths. But I did tend to find that the things that really grabbed my attention in economics were these interesting little examples of quirks of history or paradoxes or mysteries about the way the world worked. When I wrote my first book, those were the things I focused on.
Can psychology and history be represented in an equation? How would that work?
You can try. Economic historians tend to bring the maths in and economic psychologists tend to bring the maths in. Maths is a very powerful way of talking about the world, but thereâs an old joke that is sometimes applied to physicists and mathematicians. The punchline is, âImagine a perfectly spherical cow in a frictionless environment.â You can imagine what the setup of the joke is.
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There is this sense that, sometimes, we are stripping away everything thatâs inconvenient in our models. There is a good reason for that, but the inconvenient stuff is a) really, really interesting and, b) potentially incredibly important. Sometimes itâs okay to strip it away, but in the banking crisis, for example, it wasnât that the fundamental economic models were all wrongâit was that they were missing all of the interesting details that turned out to be driving the situation.
âSome things that you abstract away turn out, as in the case of the banking crisis, to be the whole storyâ
In some physics models, you might say, âWeâre going to ignore friction here because it doesnât really help us understand whatâs going on.â But I promise you, if you walk out the door and try to walk down the street, and there is no frictionâŚThat friction is very, very important because without it, you will not be able to get anywhere. Youâll be flat on your face. For some applications, you can ignore the friction. For others, itâs absolutely central otherwise you do not understand whatâs going on.
Itâs the same with economics. Some things that you abstract away turn out, as in the case of the banking crisis, to be the whole story.
But just as I could read and enjoy Pride and Prejudice without knowing any literary theory, couldnât I enjoy economics withoutâŚ
You can enjoy it in an everyday way, but a little bit of economic knowledge would go a long way towards spotting fascinating patterns in the world around us that you might not have picked up on. Similarly, if youâve studied a little bit of English literature, youâre going to get a lot more out of the next book that you read. You may not get more if you go on to do a doctorate in English literature, but a little bit does go a long way in harnessing your enjoyment and appreciation of whatâs happening.
Letâs go through the books youâve chosen to help people to get to that stage. First on the list is Thinking Strategically (1991), which youâve told me is the book that first made you fall in love with economics.
Well, as I mentioned, I studied philosophy, politics, and economics, which is quite a common degree course for people who have no idea what they plan to do with their lives. I assumed I would drop economics and that philosophy and politics would be the things that would interest me. But, actually, economics slowly but surely got more and more intriguing. At first, it was easy rather than interesting. It was just maths problems that I didnât find very difficult. Then, later, I started encountering ideas that I found genuinely fascinating. Dixit and Nalebuffâs book Thinking Strategically is full of them. Itâs all about game theory and its practical, everyday applications.
What game theory is is an attempt to try to represent competition and cooperation in a proper, formal analytic way. Thereâs the idea that people may be lying to you and that you canât trust everybody. People may tie their own hands to improve their bargaining positionâlike Odysseus tying himself to the mast so, even though he could hear the Sirens singing, he couldnât dive into the sea and swim towards them and his doom.
âGame theory is an attempt to try to represent competition and cooperation in a proper, formal analytic wayâ
Itâs about bargaining or coordination problemsâsay where youâre trying to meet somebody. You donât know exactly where to meet them. You havenât got your phone with you. Where is the right place? Youâve arranged to meet them somewhere in town at noon. Where do you go? Where might they go? Youâre thinking, too, what they might want. Game theory is full of surprising results and little paradoxes and things that you donât, at first, appreciate about the world.
All these very, very rich ideas in social science were originally expressed mathematically by John von Neumann, a great mathematician who also helped to invent the computer and the atomic bomb. He started by trying to analyse poker: âReal life consists of bluffing, of little tactics of deception, of asking yourself what is the other man going to think I mean to do. And that is what games are about in my theory.â
Dixit and Nalebuff have basically taken this set of ideas, stripped away a lot of the mathematicsâbut kept a little bitâand illustrated it with everything from competition policy cases to sports decisions on the tennis court or yachting races. They really just brought it alive.
Can you give me an example?
I had the privilege, recently, of interviewing Garry Kasparov, the chess grandmasterâperhaps the greatest chess player ever to grace the world stage. (It was terrifying, by the way, to meet him.) We were talking about how he would prepare exhaustively for games with ânovelties.â When someone is playing a well-understood line of moves, a novelty is something that no one has ever tried before, but turns out to be a really good counterattack. Kasparov was famous for having this enormous database of novelties that he wouldnât reveal to anybody. Heâd memorised them all.
He was explaining why that was useful. You would think, âWell, thatâs useful because you can spring out one of these surprise moves and beat people at their strongest game.â In fact, the main effect of the novelties was that people wouldnât play their strongest game. Theyâd be thinking, âIf I play this line of attack that I always play, Kasparov will have an answer, so I will have to do some other thing that Iâm not nearly as familiar with. Iâm not as comfortable with it, but at least I wonât have to deal with a Kasparov novelty.â
Thatâs a classic piece of game theory. This preparation that Kasparov did was very, very powerfulâeven though he never used it. It was just the knowledge that it was probably there that had an impact on the game. That can all be expressed in game theoretic terms.
Equally, letâs say Rafael Nadal has an absolutely fantastic backhand, which I suspect he does. How does he make his backhand more effective and win more points on his backhand? The answer is to improve his forehand. If he improves his forehand, people wonât be so happy to hit to his forehand. Theyâll hit more to his backhand and that means he gets to use his backhand more often. Itâs that kind of analysis.
Does this kind of thinking need to be mathematized to be useful?
No, you donât need to mathematize it at all. I once heard somebody say, âThe best argument for studying game theory is if you have a conversation with someone who has never studied any game theory and you realise the basic mistakes they are making in thinking about the world.â
Game theory can get very, very technical and very abstract and at certain points you start to go, âWell, Iâm not sure this highly abstract representation of the world is really telling us anything.â Thatâs what I like about Dixit and Nalebuff: they have a little bit of maths, but not a lot and, basically, the way they communicate is through these nice, simple examples.
They have a nice quote, that game theory is all about strategic decision-making and that âall of us are strategists, whether we like it or not.â
The definition they have in mind of âstrategicâ is not necessarily the same as most peopleâs. By âstrategic,â they mean taking into account the incentives and likely moves of the other person. Thatâs what an economist typically means by strategic interaction.
If Iâm trying to figure out how to bet in a game of roulette, thatâs a decision problem. Itâs not a strategic problem because the roulette wheel isnât counter-strategizing. In poker, it is a strategic problem because there are other people and I have to think about what they might do in certain circumstances. I have to think about confusing them and not becoming too predictable myself.
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There are all these strategic considerations. Strategy can be completely competitiveâit could be about enemies. But strategic considerations also apply when youâre trying to coordinate with people. It may be silly, but a classic example is when youâre going out on a date with somebody and you both agree that youâd like to go out, but you differ about exactly where youâd prefer to go. Would you like to go to a restaurant or would you like to go to the movies? Thatâs a strategic interaction as well.
Letâs talk about the next book, Money Changes Everything: How Finance Made Civilization Possible (2016) by William Goetzmann. This looks fascinating.
This book is about the history, often the ancient history, of all sorts of financial innovations, from the limited liability company (Rome) to paper money (China) to accounts (ancient Mesopotamia) to the money transfer service (Europe during the Crusades, courtesy of the Knights Templar).
It has been a fantastic source for my own book, 50 Things That Made the Modern Economy, which is how I discovered it. Itâs a totally global perspective and youâre constantly encountering stuff you had no idea about.
What I also like about it is that economics is often taught in a very ahistorical way. There is this thing called âthe economy.â We donât need to bother with the details of where it came from or how itâs grown. We just need to understand how it works now. Thatâs fine, but the story of where it came from is fascinating.
I know, even though I drive a diesel car, before I read your book I knew nothing about Rudolf Diesel. What a tragic figure! Itâs like van Goghâheâs short of money in his lifetime but then his work generates vast amounts of wealth after his deathâbut itâs worse, because at least most people have heard of van Gogh and know a bit about him. I didnât even realise Diesel was a person.
Yes, poor guy. There are a couple of tragic gems in the book. One of the things I really enjoyed about writing 50 Things was that you could smuggle in economic ideasâsome of them quite deep and quite abstractâunder the guise of âonce upon a time there was this person who invented this thing and this is what it did to the world.â The âand therefore this happenedâ is classic economics, but putting the story at the beginning just makes it much easier to grasp. It makes it more concrete but also more human.
Going back to Goetzmann, it turns out that we actually owe the first writing to a bunch of accountants. Can you tell me more about that?
So Goetzmann tells the story of Babylonian cuneiform and trying to figure out what was going on with that. By the way, thatâs also discussed in Felix Martinâs book, Money (2013), which is another good book.
What was cuneiform?
Cuneiform is writing on clay tablets discovered in ancient Mesopotamian cities. Itâs about 4,000 years oldâso older than any previous writing that had been discovered. It was very hard to decipher. The thinking had been that early writing was hieroglyphic, so pictograms, but cuneiform seems to be purely abstract.
So itâs a really old form of writing and no one could figure out what was going on. The other mystery was that, along with the cuneiform tablets, there were all these beads and baubles that look almost like playing pieces of some childâs board game. Nobody could figure out what those were all about, either, because theyâre not particularly ornamental and they donât seem to have any value.
Both puzzles were simultaneously solved by a French archaeologist called Denise Schmandt-Besserat. She realised that the little tokens are designed to count stuff. So if your maths isnât very good and youâre trying to count 10 amphorae of olive oil youâve got one bead here shaped like a vase. Thatâs one vase of olive oil and thereâs another vase of olive oil so now Iâve got a second and now Iâve got another one, and another one, and another one. Itâs called correspondence counting. Now, although I canât really count, I have managed to count how many amphorae of olive oil have come into the temple as taxation or tribute orâweâre not sure exactly why they were coming in.
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Then she realises that the cuneiform is the imprint, in soft clay tablets, of these hard clay baubles. So you can print this one, which is a sheep. This oneâs wheat. This oneâs wine. Theyâre different shapes. So they are kind of pictograms, but theyâre not pictures of sheep. Theyâre pictures of tokens that represent sheep. Theyâre not pictures of amphorae of olive oil. Theyâre pictures of tokens of amphorae of olive oil.
There is that extra layer of abstraction and, very quickly, they start realising they can make the same marks with a stylus. So she solves the puzzle about what this is all about. Itâs counting the flows and stocks of products.
So this is the first maths and the first writing. Itâs also the first accountancy. Itâs all wrapped up togetherâdealing with the struggle of trying to manage these increasingly sophisticated urban economies. The city of Uruk would have held maybe 5,000 people. Itâs not big, but big enough that you need to start keeping track of things. Because there are these agricultural economies attached to cities, you start having to plan ahead.
The book sounds brilliant.
Itâs great fun. Itâs big and thick and itâs got small print and lots of footnotesâitâs an academic book, but by the standards of most academic books itâs incredibly lively.
The next book on your list is Hidden Order (1996)Â by David Friedman. Is this Milton Friedmanâs son?
It is Milton Friedmanâs son. So Milton won a Nobel Prize in economics and is a famous libertarian thinker arguing for small government. David Friedman took the libertarian project further and has done a lot of philosophical work on how a proper libertarian society could work. But alongside that he wrote this lovely book, Hidden Order. Itâs sort of a textbook and sort of a popular introduction to economicsâit hasnât quite made up its mind which it is.
It was published about the same time as Steven Landsburgâs The Armchair Economist, which is also a great book. Both are great introductions to what it means to think like an economist. A typical example: Friedman uses an economic lens to explain why marriage has become less popular. Itâs simple: before the pill, the freezer, and antibiotics, women were kept busy full-time having babies and putting food on the table. With few marketable skills they had to stay married, no matter how miserable the relationship. Once women had more time and the ability to earn a living independently, there was far less reason to stay in an unhappy marriageâor to bother with marriage in the first place.
I chose Hidden Order because itâs full of these intriguing economic insights into the way that the world works and the way the economic mode of reasoning can be powerful, but it also has a little bit of maths. So you can read this bookâwhich is very, very readableâand, at the end of it, you have actually covered a basic microeconomics 101.
Iâve been intrigued by the difference between macro- and microeconomics during the last few years. Thereâs all this talk about economics being in trouble because it didnât predict the financial crisis. But whenever I mention this to an economist, they tell me that all the problems are in macro and things in micro are going swimmingly. Is that accurate do you think?
I have to say, I donât think the strengths and weaknesses of economics are best judged by whether the subject predicts banking crises. Iâm not saying itâs not a problem. Iâm not saying that economics doesnât have things to think about. But the number of people in academic economics who were trying to predict banking crises was vanishingly small. Maybe thatâs a problem in and of itself, but if you werenât trying, you can hardly blame them for not succeeding.
The distinction between microeconomics and macroeconomics is an interesting one. Microeconomics was always my enthusiasm. Itâs trying to use mathematical logic to understand how people make choices, how they respond to different price incentives, how competition works. Increasingly, in modern times, through this new field of behavioural economics, itâs incorporated psychology as well. So, if you go to a supermarket and youâre trying to figure out these three-for-two offers, and why certain products are prominently displayed and others arenât, all of that is microeconomics.
âMicroeconomics is trying to use mathematical logic to understand how people make choices, how they respond to different price incentives, how competition worksâ
Macroeconomics is much more about, âWhy are there recessions? Why is the unemployment rate 6% rather than 12%?â Macro is just intrinsically a harder problem. Youâve got less data. You canât run experiments very easily. Everything is connected to everything else. Itâs just a hard problem to solve. I did write a book about macroeconomics, partly to teach myself macroâŚ
Which one was that?
The Undercover Economist Strikes Back (2013). By the end of writing that book, I was a little bit in love with macro. I thought, âOkay. I understand even though macroeconomists have made all these mistakes and even though the subject often seems highly mathematical and seems to have all these flaws, there is a reason why they do the things they do. Itâs not just because theyâre a bunch of crazy people. There is a logic and they do have some achievements, and there is a certain sort of beauty to the almost impossible task of trying to understand the macroeconomy.â
So going back to Hidden Orderâitâs very much about micro, isnât it?
Itâs very much micro. So let me give you one beautiful example of the way he thinks. Imagine a factory which has invented this amazing way of turning grain into automobiles. Itâs like a Dr. Seuss invention, you just pour in the grain at one side and out the other side come these automobiles. Itâs a Silicon Valley startup, on the coast of California. So people grow grain in Iowa and they send it to the factory, and out come cars.
âMacro is just intrinsically a harder problem. Youâve got less data. You canât run experiments very easily. Everything is connected to everything elseâ
Then there is an investigative report by local journalists who break into the factory and discover that, actually, there is no factory. Itâs just a dock. Itâs a concealed dock and all theyâre doing is theyâre putting grain on ships that set sail for Japan and when the ships come back, theyâve got Toyotas on them. So itâs a trick. Itâs not this new technology at all.
Then Friedman says, âOkay. Whatâs the difference? Why does it matter that there isnât actually a machine in the factory and that the machine is actually Japan?â Japan is a machine for turning grain into automobiles. Should we feel differently about it?
Now, whether itâs good or bad is a separate question that we can discuss and explore. But it was just a beautiful piece of reasoning that makes you understand that, fundamentally, there is an enormous amount of similarity between technological progress and just opening up trade with other countries. He then asks what the consequences would be.
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One of the consequences, by the way, is that American grain farmers are in direct competition with American automobile manufacturers, because you can turn grain into automobiles via Japan. Therefore, if you want to protect American automobile manufacturers, you can do that by hammering American grain farmers, but is that what you want to do? Maybe. Maybe not. But you start to understand that things are connected not-at-all in the way that you thought they might have been.
Friedman being Friedman, heâll then take it further and say, âAnd therefore, free trade is great, et cetera, et cetera.â But you donât need to go all the way down that line to appreciate the power of that kind of reasoning.
There is this stereotype that economists are right wing, isnât there?
You mean like Thomas Piketty? Heâs really, really not right wing. There is a huge amount of political variability in economics. There are some very left-wing economists and some very right-wing economists, just as in any other profession.
Is it a neutral subject?
Iâm not sure I would say that itâs neutral. It has certain biases to it and it leads to a certain way of perceiving the world. So I think economists do tend to the right on certain issues and to the left on others. We tend to be pro-choice. We are pro-immigration, generally, and pro-human freedom in all sorts of ways. These causes are often associated with the left. But we also tend to be pro-choice when it comes to buying from Amazon. Thatâs okay. You donât have to feel embarrassed about it. So pro-market but also pro-freedom. So that often leads to economists being in rather strange political spaces.
âThere is a huge amount of political variability in economicsâ
Right now in the UK, the leader of the Liberal Democrats is an economist, but both of the leaders of the main parties are very, very far away from positions that most economists would recognise as rational.
Letâs move on to your next book, The Truth About Markets: Why Some Nations are Rich But Most Remain Poor (2003) by John Kay.
John Kay has written many books but this one feels, to me, like his masterpiece. John is a very, very interesting thinker and an old mentor of mine. I used to work as a research assistant for him in the 1990s. Heâs fascinating because he is a brilliant thinker. He has a really sharp grasp of all the classic economic ideasâeverything from the economics of trade to the economics of price discrimination, and how markets work. Heâs got all of that and he probably had all of that at the age of 19.
Then he spent the rest of his lifeâso farâthinking about the extensions and the complications, and all the messy details. So one of the joys of David Friedmanâs book is the way that he strips away all the complications to show you something really powerful about the basic way of reasoning about the economy.
John Kay is the antithesis of that. He understands everything in Friedmanâs book, but heâs saying, âWell, thereâs this other consideration. There is this historical consideration. There is this psychological consideration. There is this political consideration or moral consideration.â All of this stuff needs to be taken into account. Markets are not just a system of equilibrating equations. They have a historical context. They have a political context. Theyâre a lot messier than they might seem in a textbook.
He says that a good model is like a Biblical parable. Itâs not true or false. Itâs either illuminating or un-illuminating.
Yes, and whether itâs illuminating or not depends on whether youâre using it in the right context and in the right spirit. The basic idea of a model is to simplify, to strip away detail. Thatâs really, really powerful. But if you use it in the wrong way, you are going to lead yourself very badly astray.
âMarkets are not just a system of equilibrating equations. They have a historical context. They have a political context. Theyâre a lot messier than they might seemâ
There is this classic idea, in the social sciences, of foxes versus hedgehogs. A fox is going to see everything in all kinds of different ways, a little bit of everything, whereas a hedgehog has one big idea and sees the world through that lens. When the model does not actually apply, you can go incredibly badly astray with that sort of logic. John is a classic fox.
So what is the truth about markets?
That markets are a part of society. They are not this thing that exists in the abstract that either work or donât work and thatâs all there is to it. There is always history. There is always culture. There is always politics, and if you try to diagnose whatâs wrong with the market or try to make a market work better and youâre ignoring the history and the politics, and the culture, youâre going to make very bad decisions.
Do you want to give me an example?
The very first column I researched for John would have been, probably, around the time of 1999âs Wimbledon. I said, âOh, Wimbledonâs coming, John. We could write a column about ticket touts and how ticket touts are good for markets.â He said, âOkay. Why donât you set out your thinking?â
This is classic. Iâm in my mid-20s and full of the joys of economics. The Economist magazine used to write this sort of column every year, all about how the ticket tout is basically taking a ticket away from someone who doesnât value it very muchâbecause they pay them enough to persuade them to part with the ticketâand they then turn around and sell the ticket to someone whoâs willing to pay more. Itâs efficiency-enhancing and everyoneâs better off.
I sketched all this out for him. He then went and wrote a column about ticket touts, explaining how it all began with Thomas Aquinas and his concept of the just price. Prices are not just market clearing, they embody moral and cultural norms and if you donât understand that, you donât really understand anything about markets. I always remembered that. Iâm not sure I agreed with him, but I was just astonished that an economist would write this piece that was so equivocal about ticket touts and, also, was talking about Thomas Aquinas.
Is he an anti-economist, in some ways?
No, no, not at all. Heâs a brilliant economist.
Is this economics at its best, then?
I think so, yes. Heâs an amazing thinker. There is so much stuff out there that is anti-economics, all about how economists get this wrong and donât understand that, and blah blah blah. Some of it is true or makes good points, but a lot of it is based on no understanding whatsoever of how economists actually think. John really does know, so when he criticises economists he really understands what he is criticizing. If you want somebody to give economics a kicking, itâs got to be somebody who understands how economists think.
âThe basic idea of a model is to simplify, to strip away detail. Thatâs really powerful. But if you use it in the wrong way, you are going to lead yourself very badly astrayâ
The great thing about reading John is that heâll be explaining how an economic idea works with tremendous clarity on one page and the next page heâll be explaining how economists have made a terrible mistake. And itâs all there together, so heâs well worth the read.
Talking about critiques of economics and its teaching, what do you think about the CORE textbook, which you mentioned in a tweet the other day, as a way of introducing economics? Isnât that about bringing economics into the 21st century?
Iâve only skimmed it and havenât studied their resources in great detail, but Iâm very much in sympathy with what theyâre doing, which is, first of all, to start with the concerns of students who show up interested in economics. What are students interested in economics actually interested in? Apparently, one of the main things theyâre interested in is inequality. Well, inequality was not studied much in economics coursesâcertainly 25 years ago. It was studied, but in a quite theoretical way. So thatâs front and centre in this course.
It talks about the Industrial Revolution. It talks about the last 200 years of economic history. Youâve got the process of economic growth, youâve got the process of growing inequality, youâve got technological aspects of how the economy works, and youâve got historyâall in that opening salvo.
Theyâve been criticised by some people for not being heterodox enough. Fundamentally, it is all classic economics. Theyâre not bringing in Marxist or new institutional or feminist perspectives on economics. It is a straightforward economics textbook, just told in a much more human wayâwhich actually is what weâve been trying to do throughout this interview.
On to your last book, Grand Pursuit: the Story of Economic Genius (2011) by Sylvia Nasar, who also wrote A Beautiful Mind (1998). In this book sheâs writing about all these famous economistsâŚ
Yes, Marx, Keynes, Fisher, Alfred Marshallâbut also less well-known figures, like Beatrice Webb. I had no idea who Beatrice Webb was when I was studying economics, but she co-founded the London School of Economics and coined the term âcollective bargaining.â
One of the things thatâs interesting about Sylvia Nasarâs work is that she is trying to take some of the undisputed big players in economics and put them in a social context, describe how theyâre related to each other but, also, focus the spotlight on less well-known thinkers.
This book was very educational for me. As an undergraduate, I learnt economics as ahistorical, a kind of maths. This is a book that talks about the history of economic thought and makes it very personal. It talks about economic thinkers and their hopes and dreams and their personal failings.
It also connects the thoughts they were having with the economic situation at the time. In the late 19th century, in the United States, people were starving to death because of the recession of 1897. Then there was the Great Depression. Then there was the post-war period and Bretton Woods. All these different experiences were shaping how economists thought about the world.
Itâs all in this book and I would say 99.9% of it was missing from at least my study as an undergraduate. So it was a great thing for me to read. I think knowing where these ideas come from makes you a better economist, but itâs also really interesting to read about people.
At the beginning, you mentioned Irving Fisher?
Yes, Irving Fisher is the character who has captured me. He really was one of the founders of modern economic thought, but was basically completely disgraced by his failure to predict the Wall Street Crash of 1929. It was a very public failure because he was an enormously famous economic commentator and forecaster at the time.
Not only that, but he was a multimillionaire and he lost everythingâliterally everythingâin the crash. So heâs a fascinating and tragic figure. He was truly a genius and, yet, utterly failed in one of these central roles of what we expect from economists.
At the beginning of the John Kay book, doesnât he make fun of CNBC and Bloomberg TV, saying these ridiculous programmes arenât about economics?
John Kay says, âThis stuff is nothing to do with economics,â but for Fisher it was, definitely, to do with economics. He was very actively involved as an economic and financial forecaster and investor. What kind of economist were you if you couldnât make profitable investments, and forecast economic fluctuations? As it turned out, he was the greatest economist on the planet, but he couldnât forecast economic fluctuations, so there you go. Draw whatever modern-day lessons you like from that.
âHe was the greatest economist on the planet, but he couldnât forecast economic fluctuations. Draw whatever modern-day lessons you like from thatâ
People say Marx forecast the crisis of capitalism and Keynes was a successful investor so perhaps youâre not always doomed.
I like the Alfred Marshall quote she uses, that the mainspring of economic study is the âdesire to put mankind in the saddleââand that that marked a big change from before, when humans felt themselves at the whim of fate and the gods. Itâs quite a new discipline, isnât it?
It is. The early economists were also philosophersâpeople like Adam Smith and Karl Marx. Irving Fisher did the first ever PhD in economics at Yale. That was in the early 1890s. So just over a hundred years ago, the subject didnât even exist. But I think it was Alfred Marshall who described economics as, âa study of mankind in the ordinary business of life.â Having said that economics defies easy definitions, you could do worse than that one.
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Tim Harford is a British economist. He is a columnist for the Financial Times, a presenter of the BBC radio series More or Less, an occasional TV presenter and prolific author. He was made an Officer of the Order of the British Empire (OBE) in the 2018 New Year Honours for services to improving economic understanding.
Tim Harford is a British economist. He is a columnist for the Financial Times, a presenter of the BBC radio series More or Less, an occasional TV presenter and prolific author. He was made an Officer of the Order of the British Empire (OBE) in the 2018 New Year Honours for services to improving economic understanding.